Oil

deptford

Active Member
A lot of folks can't understand how we came to have an oil shortage here in Australia. Well, there's a very simple answer. Nobody bothered to check the oil. We just didn't know we were getting low.The reason for that is purely geographical.

Our oil is located in

Bass striat
East Queensland shale feilds
Canning basin
Perth basin
and
North-west continental shelf

And to top it off all our DIPSTICKS are located in Canberra!!!
 

Alien d2

4x4 Earth Contributer
Dipsticks are like children.

Never there when you need them, and allways in the way when you don't:p
 

Grey Ghost

4x4 Earth Contributer
Or that we sell all our local oil off shore and buy more expensive imported oil in return. Now some claim that the oil available locally is too thick or generally unsuitable for our refining plants but that is an old argument from years ago and technology has changed and plants have already adapted to different refining processes. Once again corporate greed and short term gain triumphs over common sense and logic.
 

millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
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millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
Here is one of many interesting discussions on Peak Oil theory, with its concluding paragraph;

Peak Oil News: The End of the Oil Age

"The truth is that peak oil has already had an impact on all of the major events of this young century. And it will have a major impact on all of our lives at a most personal level in the years to come. The public needs to be informed. Our civilization is about to undergo a radical change unparalleled in history. And those we are allowing to call the shots are more concerned with their own personal gain than with the general welfare."

The main problem is population growth in general, and the coming 'on stream' of the huge numbers of new drivers in Cina and India in particular. If there were no new drivers starting from today, then the world's oil supply would last for a simillar amount of time as from when we first started to burn oi, when the internal combustion engine was first invented - a little more than 100 years ago.

If the Peak Oil Theory is correct, then we are now at about the peak. The half way point. We are very lucky at the moment. Oil and petrol will never be cheaper. But as the ability to produce oil declines on a day by day basis, and the demand for petrol rises with the human population explosion, then the cost of petrol is going to soar.

So who will be joining me 'On the Beach?'. For those that not have heard of the book On the Beach, it was written by Neville Shute, an Australian author. He was well known for his other book A Town Like Alice. There was a good black and white film of On the Beach starring Gregory Peck. The story was set in Melbourne. And there was a more modern version produced about 15 years ago. One of my favourites. And the characters in this film were facing there 'end of the world' scenario by following their own hobbies with a last burning passion.

I think we who love driving our gus guzzling 4x4s our just like those poor people in the book. So enjoy it while we can, because I reckon we won't be able to afford our luxury for much longer. Sorry.
 
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001525

Guest
The crud always seems to rise to the top. We've had crud running this country for many decades at every level of government. WTF is going on?
 

millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
The Olduvai Theory is another way of looking at this doomsday scenario. I found this theory about ten years ago and was quite fascinated by it. It was first proposed by Richard Duncan in 1989. This theory tries to predict how mankind will fare as cheap energy comes to an end. His theory is also based on Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory, but he goes further, and develops his predictions based on the ratio of world energy production to world population - energy per capita.

Richard Duncan, an electrical energy predicts that from 2012 onwards to 2030 civilization will gradually fall into chaos, or a 'post industrial stone age'. This will unfold as a series of electrical black outs. He talks about 'brown outs' happeninig at first, starting in 2012. Hell that's next year! Wasn't some other theory talking about the end happening in 2012?

Here is a quick summary; Olduvai theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And Duncan's second, updated version (1996) of his theory;
Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age, by Richard Duncan

It makes for a good read. I remember when I first found Duncan's theory I started reading it, the original 1989 version, and was so mesmerized I didn't stop reading until the end - 27 pages later, full of technical details and data.

Here is an excerpt from near the start of the above revised version -

"My Odyssey with the Olduvai theory began thirty-two years ago during a lecture series titled, Of Men and Galaxies, given at the University of Washington by cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle.

It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964; emphasis added)

I was fascinated—and stunned.His soft-spoken proposal seemed incredulous, bizarre, preposterous—and possibly inevitable. A return to the Stone Age? Deep cultural and material impoverishment? However nobody else in the audience seemed the least concerned. Perhaps Hoyle was just giving a lead-in to his next science fiction thriller. So for the next decade I went about my way: raising kids, building airplanes and teaching engineers. Haunted by Hoyle's hypothesis."
 
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001525

Guest
The Olduvai Theory is another way of looking at this doomsday scenario. I found this theory about ten years ago and was quite fascinated by it. It was first proposed by Richard Duncan in 1989. This theory tries to predict how mankind will fare as cheap energy comes to an end. His theory is also based on Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory, but he goes further, and develops his predictions based on the ratio of world energy production to world population - energy per capita.

Richard Duncan, an electrical energy predicts that from 2012 onwards to 2030 civilization will gradually fall into chaos, or a 'post industrial stone age'. This will unfold as a series of electrical black outs. He talks about 'brown outs' happeninig at first, starting in 2012. Hell that's next year! Wasn't some other theory talking about the end happening in 2012?

Here is a quick summary; Olduvai theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

And Duncan's second, updated version (1996) of his theory;
Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age, by Richard Duncan

It makes for a good read. I remember when I first found Duncan's theory I started reading it, the original 1989 version, and was so mesmerized I didn't stop reading until the end - 27 pages later, full of technical details and data.

Here is an excerpt from near the start of the above revised version -

"My Odyssey with the Olduvai theory began thirty-two years ago during a lecture series titled, Of Men and Galaxies, given at the University of Washington by cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle.

It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only. (Hoyle, 1964; emphasis added)

I was fascinated—and stunned.His soft-spoken proposal seemed incredulous, bizarre, preposterous—and possibly inevitable. A return to the Stone Age? Deep cultural and material impoverishment? However nobody else in the audience seemed the least concerned. Perhaps Hoyle was just giving a lead-in to his next science fiction thriller. So for the next decade I went about my way: raising kids, building airplanes and teaching engineers. Haunted by Hoyle's hypothesis."

Anyone who thinks that the world will continue on in it's current merry way will be seriously deluding themselves. The planet cannot sustain continued population growth and increasing demand for resources. The Olduvai Theory raises some valid points which should not be totally ignored. The world won't end next year or in the foreseeable future but it's inevitable that the world will be a different place in the next 100 years.
 

millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
It appears that the beginning of modern civilization, the industrial revolution, based on the science of energy and energy conversions, steam engines, was in fact the beginning of the end. The quicker we became clever with science, the quicker we used up the fossil fuels which were the cheap energy that our civilization depends on.

All would have been OK if we could have controlled our breeding desires. But the more we learned about science, the more resources each individual consumed in their daily lives. There is only a finite reserve of fossil fuels, and there are only finite amounts of material resources - minerals, required chemicals such as phosphates, and arable land. So the more people, the less energy and other natural resources per person, and civilization is on the decline.

This is how Duncan puts it, at the end of section 5 of his 'Sliding Towards a Post - Industrial Stone Age';

" Still, the impending Post-Industrial Stone Age is a tragedy because it really isn't inevitable. There's no absolute reason why we couldn't live in material sufficiency on this planet for millions of years. But prudence isn't our forte. "Even our success becomes failure." And, in a way, it's not our fault. Long ago Natural Selection dealt us a bad hand—we're sexually prolific, tribal, short-term and self-centred. And after thousands of years of trying, Culture hasn't changed that. And there is no sign that She will.

Backward to the future. Forward to the past. Almost perfect symmetry. "

I think the point I am trying to make here is that it is pointless blaming our politicians for these simple facts. Fossil fuels are no longer being made in nature. They were made in the time of the dinosaurs when climatic conditions were just right, and there was not a huge population of people destroying forests. And the 'e' value, the energy per person, or per capita, is becoming less each year due to our population explosion.

We could extend the life of modern civilization if we could somehow reduce our wasteful use of resources, or take a cut in our 'standard of living', and also reduce the Earth's population.

But when politicians like Rudd and Gillard try to look a bit further into the future and try to make policies to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, the carbon tax, or carbon trading, the masses see red. They don't want any cuts to their above average standard of living. This is the equivalent of saying that they would prefer to 'go out with a bang'. Let's just get it over with. Another 20 years will do us. Bugger the children.

Blaming the pollies for high fuel prices is like blaming them for a hot summer, or a drought, or a windy day. Guess what, because of climate change, and what causes it, burning fossil fuels, we are all going to be in for many hot summers, many more droughts and many more very windy days!

But we can't do without are luxuries. I wonder how we will do with out our food and water. As long as we are driving around in our 4x4s that's all that matters!

And population control? Well Rudd and Gillard have not even gone there! Why bother when they can't get past fossil fuel control!

Interesting times ahead for our 'clever' modern civilization!
 
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millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
Sorry. My little 'hobby horse'! I just find this topic so interesting. Its like watching a very slow motion head on collision between two huge trucks - one labelled 'HUMANITY', and the other 'PLANET EARTH'.

Its also interesting watching the onlookers, including myself, and their reactions to what is happening around us - the 'believers', the 'not sure's, and the 'naysayers'.

Am looking for a bite too. There's a little fish out there called deptford that teases me with these threads. Or maybe he is the fisherman and I am the little fish! I always get hooked too easily!:D
 

millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
Hi deptford. You getting stuck into my favourite pollies again! Or were you putting poor Bob on the hook again. Maybe all three! Well you caught three of us so far. I think they call that a triple header on the jetties. But its pretty poor fishing in this little pond I would say.

You really need to go fishing on the Australian Labor Party's public forum. Try the same line there. I dare you!

Anyway, enough of this bullsh.t. Did you have a look at that Olduvai Theory, or the Peak Oil Theory? If so, what do you think? Maybe they explain why our oil is running low. And have you seen that docco on the 'Oil Crash'? I missed the start of it this time, but I remember it has some good footage of the Texas oil fields in full production, and again after they ran dry. Simillar scenes from many oil fields around the world. Apparently the Middle East is the area that has the largest remaining reserves left on Earth.

As I said in that PM, I met an engineer, an aquaintence from 20 years ago, who works for Santos last weekend. He is also a ground engineer, glider repair man, at the gliding club. He was telling me about a couple of the projects he is supervising at the moment - an oil pipe across the newly flooded plains in the Cooper Basin, and a drilling operation gone slightly haywire in the Cooper Basin.

As I was driving home from the club I cursed myself for not asking him about the exact issue that you have raised in this thread. Just how much longer does Bass Straight and the Cooper Basin have to run before going empty? Or probably an easier question to answer, have either of them passed their peak production values as yet? They never really go empty, just become uneconomical to operate in the end I would say, due to low daily volumes.

I might do a bit of Net surfing to see if I can find the answer.
 
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richardlnsw

Moderator
I wonder if nuclear power will get the prado up those sand dunes any better??????????? I hope so cause that's what she be running on soon.:eek:
 

millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
Looks like Santos is going well, except for the flooding in the Cooper;

http://www.santos.com/library/17021...r_net_profit_by_15_percent_to_500_million.pdf

A couple of quotes -

17 February 2011
Santos lifts full year net profit by 15% to $500 million
Underlying net profit up 46% to $376 million
Santos today announced a net profit of $500 million after tax for the year ended 31 December
2010, 15% higher than the previous year.
Underlying net profit of $376 million was up 46% on the previous year due to higher product prices
and lower exploration expense.
The 2010 headline result includes a $214 million profit after tax from asset sales, including the sale
of a 15% interest in the GLNG project to Total announced in September 2010, and asset
impairments of $123 million after tax.
Production of 49.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) was 8% lower primarily due to wet
weather and flood events in Central Australia which reduced Cooper Basin production by
2.9 mmboe, partially offset by stronger gas production in Western Australia and Indonesia.
Higher commodity prices were evident across the Santos portfolio in 2010 and drove sales
revenue to $2.2 billion, 2% higher than 2009."

"Reserves growth and resource conversion
Santos increased its proved and probable (2P) reserves in 2010 to a record 1,445 mmboe. This
was the company’s seventh successive annual increase in its reserves. Successful exploration,
appraisal and commercialisation activity, along with the sanctioning of new projects, added
165 mmboe of 2P reserves.
The increase in reserves was driven by strong growth in coal seam gas (CSG) reserves dedicated
to the sanctioned GLNG project. Reserves also increased in the Cooper Basin and through the
sanctioning of the Spar (Western Australia) and Wortel (Indonesia) gas projects."

Reserves have increased, but I am not sure whether that implies production is still rising. I don't think it is quite that simple. Really need to look at exact production volumes over last 5 or 10 years to get the simple answer I think.

And this is just one company. Really need to add up the production data for all Cooper Basin companies.
 
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millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
Just found this amazing web page. You can dial in a question about almost any type of information you want, including population changes or oil production changes, over the last ten years. Also choose any country on Earth. It draws the graph for you.

Here's the population graph for China over the last 10 years. And they have a birth control policy!

China - Population - Historical Data Graphs per Year

They have increased from 1260 million to 1339 million between 2000 and 2009. That ia an increase of 79 million! Nearly four times Australia's total population!

And even America is providing a huge number of extra mouths to feed per decade - 276 million up to 307 million = 31million increase = 1.5 times Austalias total population.

And for Australia - about 19.1 million to 21.25 million = 2.15 million

Comparing these three countries in terms of % increases in population;

China - 79/1260x100 = 6.3%
America - 31/276x100 = 11.2%
Australia - 2.15/19.1x100 = 11.26%
 
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millsy

4x4 Earth Contributer
And the world's total oil production figures over 5 years from 2003 to 2008;

World Oil - production - Economy

Looks like the world's oil production was still rising then. But just how quickly compared to past years? And what about between 2008 and today. We will just have to wait for the numbers to come in I suppose! Maybe past the peak! If so, watch out for those petrol/diesel price rises!

And how does the percentage rate of rise compare to the world's population percentage increase?

World Population - Demographics

In 2003, world population was 6,302,309,691 and in 2008 it was 6,706,993,152

That is an increase of 404,683,461 or 404.683461 million

That is a percentage increase of 404683461/6302309691 x 100 = 6.03%

This shows Australia population rate of increase is nearly twice that of the total world's population percentage increase. Looks like Peter Costello's 1 for Mum, 1 for Dad and 1 for Australia is working well!

And the world's oil production figures and percentage increase over the same period;

in 2003 - 75,460 bbl/day in 2008 - 84,790 bbl/day Increase = 9,330 bbl/day

giving a %increase of 9,330/75,460*100 = 12.36%

So Richard Duncan's oil production per capita actually was still on the rise between 2003 and 2007 according to these figures, which might go against his prediction that it would peak in 2007. I would really need to look at the population and oil figures for 2006 and 2007 specifically to confirm one way or the other. Not tonight!
 
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deptford

Active Member
Hav'nt had much of a cance to read them yet millsy,due to work.But will have the chance to saturday night or sunday.
 
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