A few weeks back we had an extreme level set and schools were closed all across parts of western Sydney and the Blue Mountains. There were no fires at that stage, the Gospers Mountain mega fire started that afternoon from memory, but was many kilometres out in the Putty wilderness. The temperature that day was in the mid 20's and there was very little wind. Today, it's already getting hot and predicated to be 40+ and there are mega fires all around us. We can barely see the other side of the street for smoke and yet all the schools are open??? Didn't the media need a frenzy today, what with that shocker over in New Zealand. $350 a head to get on that island, my condolences to the victim's families.
Fire Emergency levels
- Thread starter mikehzz
- Start date
dno67
Well-Known Member
Give it a few years and they will have to add to the existing warnings, your then have days like "super extreme catastrophic mega fire" warning for today.
There all gone mad, they need to keep things simple and somewhat consistent.
Low, medium, high and extreme. Should cover it, then educate people on the varying different conditions they may incounter on different days. Starting as primary school.
Albynsw
Well-Known Member
I was talking about the same thing today with a couple of locals “ catastrophic “ seems to be the new buzz word
All of this sensationalism is going to cost people their lives one day, as @dno67 said we need to keep this stuff simple and realistic so that everyone understands the gravity of the situation. What happened a couple of weeks ago was ridiculous
All of this sensationalism is going to cost people their lives one day, as @dno67 said we need to keep this stuff simple and realistic so that everyone understands the gravity of the situation. What happened a couple of weeks ago was ridiculous
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Actually it IS consistent, and is scientifically based. The Fire Danger Ratings are based on a calculated Fire Danger Index, which takes into account forecast temperature, humidity & wind speed + how dry the environment is (called "Drought Factor") . I won't go into the science behind it - if you're interested google McArthur Fire Danger Index.
It's actually a measure of how difficult a fire will be to put out / how it might behave IF IT STARTS. It's not a measure of how likely fires are to occur (over 75% of fires are caused by people - you can't predict where or when that will happen !)
Where it can sometimes look strange, is the published Fire Danger Rating is based on the highest for a given weather forecast district. As an example, if the East Gippsland forecast district has say 15% of it's area forecast to be "Very High", 70% "High" and the rest "Moderate", then the rating will be "Very High". Usually it's based on the highest 10%. There is both a Forest FDI and Grassland FDI calculated - different Districts use one or the other (For example the Mallee & Wimmera are based on ther Grassland one, Gippsland on the Forest one.
"Code Red" days are actually DECLARED rather than calculated - eg. when the calculated FDI is off the scale. Similarly, Total Fire Bans are declared by the CFA (in Victoria) and are designed to prevent fires starting / being lit. They don't come in at a standardized FDI.
Hopefully that helps
Yes, I do this for a living .....
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Thanks Poppa.
Part of the problem is that it isn't simple .... and it's really hard to get people to pay attention to anything other than a 3 word slogan !
The CFA is doing some really good work though around what people can realistically expect under different conditions .... but getting people to listen continues to be a challenge.
dno67
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the reply dave, you have highlighted the problem, 85% maybe even more of the population wouldn't or don't understand the method used to reach FDIActually it IS consistent, and is scientifically based. The Fire Danger Ratings are based on a calculated Fire Danger Index, which takes into account forecast temperature, humidity & wind speed + how dry the environment is (called "Drought Factor") . I won't go into the science behind it - if you're interested google McArthur Fire Danger Index.
It's actually a measure of how difficult a fire will be to put out / how it might behave IF IT STARTS. It's not a measure of how likely fires are to occur (over 75% of fires are caused by people - you can't predict where or when that will happen !)
Where it can sometimes look strange, is the published Fire Danger Rating is based on the highest for a given weather forecast district. As an example, if the East Gippsland forecast district has say 15% of it's area forecast to be "Very High", 70% "High" and the rest "Moderate", then the rating will be "Very High". Usually it's based on the highest 10%. There is both a Forest FDI and Grassland FDI calculated - different Districts use one or the other (For example the Mallee & Wimmera are based on ther Grassland one, Gippsland on the Forest one.
"Code Red" days are actually DECLARED rather than calculated - eg. when the calculated FDI is off the scale. Similarly, Total Fire Bans are declared by the CFA (in Victoria and are designed to prevent fires starting / being lit. They don't come in a a standardized FDI.
Hopefully that helps
Yes, I do this for a living .....
So like myself. It seems inconsistent when you actually look at the local conditions that may present.
Victoria changed from using the term "Catastrophic" to "Code Red" some years ago, for exactly that reason. It's a day of "High Alert" as opposed to "every fire will be a catastophe". Personally I think it's unfortunate other states didn't follow suit.
..... or won't go to the effort to understand it ? They don't actually need to understand the science, just trust what the emergency services are telling them.
Unfortunately, there is a declining level of trust in scientific expertise in this era of social media ....
Albynsw
Well-Known Member
As a predictor of fire danger, you can't beat looking across a few hills and seeing flames. That means shut the schools on my index.
Wasn’t one of the fires lit by a kid who would normally of been at school that day?
peterfermtech
Well-Known Member
My fire danger predictor is when you can smell the eucalyptus be prepared.
regards
regards
It was his chance to burn the school down,
D
