Corona virus

[discomatt]

Good video, looks to me they have made considered decisions to balance the whole of society to the best of their ability and took all the advise from doctors, scientists and epidemiologists.
They had 2500 aged care deaths from the get go with minimal restriction and no time to prepare, we have had roughly 600? with some of the worlds hardest and longest shut downs and an extra 3 months to prepare and plan the inevitable. We still have the larger mental health and financial difficulties to deal with.
I don't know any of the answers but I do know to consider deaths of people with covid as the be all and end all is probably not the best approach. It is a lot more of a complex issue than that
It just really annoys me that every time the daily numbers are announced they are stated as people who died from covid which is incorrect, it should be people that died with covid. Its just scare mongering and manipulation of numbers as far as I am concerned

 

[itlldoo]

imagine if all the money thrown around by govco went in to our hospital system for such an event, how better prepared would we be for any future outbreaks, but no ! pay the bludgers a crap load and imprison the population was their plan,
this isn't going away and still our hospital system is on life support. our elderly are locked up for being old.
good plan !

 

[dno67]

imagine if all the money thrown around by govco went in to our hospital system for such an event, how better prepared would we be for any future outbreaks, but no ! pay the bludgers a crap load and imprison the population was their plan,
this isn't going away and still our hospital system is on life support. our elderly are locked up for being old.
good plan !

Similar line of thought, if super was collected buy the government and used to build infrastructure and assets then user pays and returns the money over a period of time latter receiving a government pension upon retirement ?

 

[mikehzz]

I've been to Sweden and I have friends who live in Sweden. I can tell you that as a population they are pretty much focused on doing the right thing. It's quite admirable really. They are very socially responsible with a great health system and they're very green oriented. Look at Greta, she's a typical Swede in attitude. Say what you like about her, she only has the best interests of the planet at heart. My opinion is they haven't locked down because the government trusts their population to follow the guidelines, and they do have guidelines to follow. It's as simple as that.

 

[peterfermtech]

In respect to opinions for and against Sweden's approach, I think getting it from the "Horse's Mouth", that is Sweden's Minister of Health and Social Affairs, you will see as fact their approach to Covid19.
I found it interesting to try and make comparisons to various areas she spoke about, like physical and mental health, business, education, social interaction, economy, etc.
Bit of a long video, however I reckon it is worth listening too and might give some people a different slant on things.
Or it might create more discussion sorry, argument. .

Not quite the "life as normal / herd immunity" as portrayed by many. Nor is it the chaotic and disorganised as in the the US and UK or the totally unprepared as in Italy and Spain but the results are the same with the death rates at around 600 per million population or 5 times worse than the world average.
However hindsight is a wonderful thing and humans have never been adept at learning from history but they do excel at laying blame.

 

[Choook]

For the worst case, and as presented in the text, yeah you're right... I don't think you can just discard the numbers out of hand though. This won't be a slow burn....

According to an article from the CDC (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article) the R0 of COVID-19 in the early days in Wuhan was ~5.7. It seems reasonable to me to consider this then as the "base case" rate at which we could expect transmission within the community if we switched gears and said "ok, lets let it run rampant and go for herd immunity.. Tear down the borders. Open everything up. Go back to life as normal and lets see what happens."

So, if we start today.. We have 2,747 cases active across Australia today. Let's send them all out in to the population and go back to life as normal, right now. We have magically acquired a limitless supply of test kits though, and results are instant, so we can monitor this thing in realtime for the sake of this post...

Initially.. nothing happens. There's a ~4 (4.2 to be precise, according to that same article) day incubation period. So for the next few days everything seems fine.. We have 0 new cases each day (just because I'm too lazy to include the impact in my spreadsheet). After that first week though, we suddenly hit not just a few hundred new cases, but every single one of those 2,747 cases from today has infected an average of 5.7 other people. In less than a week, there are more than 12,000 new cases of COVID in our community. Using the figures from the article Lurch quoted (1.7% deaths, 14% hospitalisation, 2% ICU) 219 people are dead. 1807 are in hospital. 258 of those are in ICU.

Fast forward another 4.2 days... Using that same nasty R0 of 5.7, this has been a really bad week for Australia. We have another 73,592 cases. 1251 people have died. Our hospitals have another 10,302 people taking up beds and 1,471 of them are in ICU. Uhoh - We now have a total of more than 1700 people needing ICU beds and we're only 1 week in. I hope those beds were all free when we started this...

4.2 more days... Not even 2 weeks have passed since we decided to unleash the hounds of COVID on our population and shoot for herd immunity. I don't like ScoMo's chances of being re-elected... Another 419,475 cases. More than 7000 people have died in the past 4 days. 7000 families are demanding answers, but hey.. Herd immunity can't be far away now, right!??! Oops, we're only at 89,250 cases total - Nowhere near the ~60% we need for herd immunity (~15m).. This week we have a problem. A big problem. We have more than 58,000 people who need hospitalisation. Where do we put them? Our hospitals are full... We have more than 8,000 of that 58,000 who need ICU... They've got no chance. They're goners.

From here, things don't get better... It takes almost 3 weeks before we hit the magic 60% for herd immunity.

At the end of that 3 weeks, we will have had more than 272,000 deaths. More than 2.2 million people needing hospitalisation and more than 32,000 people requiring ICU care. The vast majority of those people requiring a hospital bed or ICU won't get the care they need. So, throw a few more funerals in to the mix for good measure.

Then, maybe.. we will have herd immunity. If the magic 60% number holds true...

That was a "fun" little exercise in excel..... I don't think I want to try the herd immunity option.


PS.... yes, I'm a bit of a nerd. I see figures and go "Hmm, what if?" and start playing with spreadsheets... You're just lucky I didn't make a graph too.

No one is saying "hey, just open everything up and let it rip, every man/woman for themself". We can open up society including borders but with some sensible precautions in place. The numbers would not be anything remotely like your spreadsheet predictions.

Hand/personal hygiene, masks where necessary, testing of those with symtoms, isolation of those positive and awaiting results, regular cleaning of business premises. Quarantine those arriving from overseas not those travelling interstate. These are just a few things that would lower the R0 and are known and proven strategies for this virus.

Qld is spuiking their "Unite and Recover" economic recovery plan. The major flaw in this plan is the small business (and larger ones) that rely on the tourist dollar. If Qlders are all working so hard on this economic recovery then no one is taking holidays and if the borders remain closed, as permier Palaceofshame wants, then there will be many who will not recover, financially or mentally. Lockdown is not the answer. Lock our international border by all means but let the population be able to live some kind of life that resembles normal.

People need to be able to make choices. Some will choose to stay at home, some will choose to mostly stay home with some away time. Others will choose to carry on as nomal as possible but people need to be able to make those choices. I have personally shaken many hands during this time and I'm still alive, I haven't been sick and I'm pretty sure I haven't killed anyone.

Hiding in our homes waiting and hoping for a vaccine is no way to live.

 

[Albynsw]

I think we should be creating Covid borders according to hotspots not using state borders.
We have a crazy situation here where premiers are calling the shots
We need a national approach to control infection

 

[dno67]

 

[discomatt]

Not quite the "life as normal / herd immunity" as portrayed by many. Nor is it the chaotic and disorganised as in the the US and UK or the totally unprepared as in Italy and Spain but the results are the same with the death rates at around 600 per million population or 5 times worse than the world average.
However hindsight is a wonderful thing and humans have never been adept at learning from history but they do excel at laying blame.

I don't think anyone thinks that Sweden has had life as normal but its a hell of a lot more normal than ours, what they have done is keep kids in school, which in my opinion is one of the biggest stuff ups from Australian state governments , the impact on education and kids mental health will be immeasurable and long lasting. They have also kept people working although with a changed mind set but it has kept the mental health and finances of millions ticking along OK, once agian the damage here will be extensive .
Have you watched the video I posted about the behavour of viruses and death rates for the last few years or are you like synchro who is so arrogant he refuses to even look at info other menbers have posted. Its not a BS opinion piece forcing an agenda with no facts, its a piece where he looks at sciece and statistics then draws conclusions, all done by a man with more qualifications and smarts than most I would think.
As I have pointed out a few times, time will tell.

 

[synchro]

or are you like synchro who is so arrogant he refuses to even look at info other menbers have posted.

There you go with the personal attacks again - just because I do not agree with your thinking or do what you want on the forum.

I choose what I want to look at on the forum, not you - I thought that was part of what forums are about.

 

[Choook]

I think we should be creating Covid borders according to hotspots not using state borders.
We have a crazy situation here where premiers are calling the shots
We need a national approach to control infection

Absolutely agree. There is much of NSW that has no community transmission and no active cases. Why can they not come to Qld to spend their money? Why can I not go to those areas of NSW to spend my time and money? I can, I just can't come home without a ridiculous 14 days of user pays quarantine! Hotspots by geography not borders make far more sense. If your home address is in a hotspot "NO ENTRY", whether you have been there in the last 14 days or not. Locking down small areas for shorter periods as and when required seems (to me) to be better for our physical, financial and mental health all round.

The ACT has had no cases for something like 100 days yet Qld has locked them out. It is totally unclear who is running Qld now and it has been admitted that those gaining exemptions (the rich, famous and influential) have all been done for the money. Which part of more people = more money don't they understand. I'll bet if Scomo wanted to go to Qld just now he wouldn't be doing 14 days in quarantine prison.

Yes, we may get some spikes. Yes, we will have more deaths. BUT! Most will have some freedoms. Most will have financial support through working. Most will have mental support through family. Most will enjoy some kind of normal. The good bits seem to outweight the bad bits. We know far more about this virus now than in the beginging, how is spreads, how to minimise spread, how to treat mild and severe cases. Yet our leaders thinking remains in the early stages of this pandemic. As a society we need to move forward.

The new border signs for Qld.

 

[Warby]

What I find interesting, and it's evidenced in lots of places including this thread, is that public sentiment is definitely moving. We as a population were largely compliant. We did what we were told. We stayed home. We stocked up on masks and sanitiser (and toilet paper). But... it wasn't enough.

When I look (briefly) at the comments sections on news articles, this forum and facebook posts now about this whole thing the general sentiment (I think) is that people now are by and large saying "ok, enough with the lockdowns and border closures.. What else have you got?"

I personally would like to just understand what other options are being considered.. Even if it is along the lines of "we looked at these other 5 options and dismissed them for all of these reasons" ... I'd like to see the scenarios being looked at. I'd like to see and understand for myself what options have been taken off the table and why. Even though I know that I can't personally influence the decisions made by government, I'd feel alot more comfortable with those decisions if I felt like i could trust the process.....

 

[Choook]

I may not agree with some of what Dr Young (Qld CHO) has implemented and I think some of her decisions are close to heartless and others based on politics . But making death threats against her is going too far. Voice your opinion by all means by don't advocate violence, there are too many idiots short of a few brain cells that may just follow through.

https://www.news.com.au/national/qu...losure/video/b66eea73bed79005845e18ebddbd9896

 

[Warby]

I may not agree with some of what Dr Young (Qld CHO) has implemented and I think some of her decisions are close to heartless and others based on politics . But making death threats against her is going too far. Voice your opinion by all means by don't advocate violence, there are too many idiots short of a few brain cells that may just follow through.

https://www.news.com.au/national/qu...losure/video/b66eea73bed79005845e18ebddbd9896

People are stupid. Death threats seem to be part and parcel of being a public figure these days... I've never understood the logic behind "I don't like what you're saying, so IMA KEEEELLL YOU!!"

 

[Choook]

What I find interesting, and it's evidenced in lots of places including this thread, is that public sentiment is definitely moving. We as a population were largely compliant. We did what we were told. We stayed home. We stocked up on masks and sanitiser (and toilet paper). But... it wasn't enough.

When I look (briefly) at the comments sections on news articles, this forum and facebook posts now about this whole thing the general sentiment (I think) is that people now are by and large saying "ok, enough with the lockdowns and border closures.. What else have you got?"

I personally would like to just understand what other options are being considered.. Even if it is along the lines of "we looked at these other 5 options and dismissed them for all of these reasons" ... I'd like to see the scenarios being looked at. I'd like to see and understand for myself what options have been taken off the table and why. Even though I know that I can't personally influence the decisions made by government, I'd feel alot more comfortable with those decisions if I felt like i could trust the process.....

And do you think you would get a straight, succinct, honest and complete answer from govco? My knowledge of grubberment officials and the way they answer questions sees it going something like this......

"We considered 5 other options (without elaberating on what those options were) and we dismissed them based on the science (there is a lot of science out there now on this subject which science) and we continue to monitor all options and aspects of the situation (and then they would move right off the subject) while striving to bring down unemployment and kickstart our economy. While on the subject of the economy .......blah blah blah..... "

We've all seen and heard it before.

 

[peterfermtech]

What I find interesting, and it's evidenced in lots of places including this thread, is that public sentiment is definitely moving. We as a population were largely compliant. We did what we were told. We stayed home. We stocked up on masks and sanitiser (and toilet paper). But... it wasn't enough.

When I look (briefly) at the comments sections on news articles, this forum and facebook posts now about this whole thing the general sentiment (I think) is that people now are by and large saying "ok, enough with the lockdowns and border closures.. What else have you got?"

I personally would like to just understand what other options are being considered.. Even if it is along the lines of "we looked at these other 5 options and dismissed them for all of these reasons" ... I'd like to see the scenarios being looked at. I'd like to see and understand for myself what options have been taken off the table and why. Even though I know that I can't personally influence the decisions made by government, I'd feel alot more comfortable with those decisions if I felt like i could trust the process.....

Governments always seem to resort to the heavy handed approach rather than the educational. From the Vic. CHO today we learn't that 9 of todays new cases in Vic. were a "group"/"multicultural group"/"Afghanistan group" This cluster has been adding a few case for a little while and the CHO said that having had experience in Afganistan that he was suited to go have a talk with them. My question is why hasn't this already happened?

 

[jennysmithson]

So the obvious questions
Why has the media gone so nuts on Corona?
what / who is driving the media hype?
Why are they ( the group / business / governments driving the hype )making such a big deal out of it and what do they have to gain from all the hype?

...media gone nuts because it's a really infectious, dangerous disease????

hype driven by the fact it has such a big impact on us all?

who is gaining from corona? hardly anyone!

 

[dno67]

People are stupid. Death threats seem to be part and parcel of being a public figure these days... I've never understood the logic behind "I don't like what you're saying, so IMA KEEEELLL YOU!!"

When you see police behaviour like this, the average meat head dosen't see anything wrong and it evolves from there.

Suspect sent flying by cop car before head 'stomped' in wild new arrest footage

"Am I witnessing this? What the f***”

7news.com.au

This is totally unacceptable, and influences others to be more extreme.
Hopefully the guy makes a full recovery without any lasting issues.

 

[discomatt]

...media gone nuts because it's a really infectious, dangerous disease????

hype driven by the fact it has such a big impact on us all?

who is gaining from corona? hardly anyone!

Had to go back a fair way to find where, when and what context I had asked those questions, 6 months ago when all the BS had just begun.
Well 6 months later, media will always post the news most likely to get viewers, yep hype because it is what it is, at the time I probably thought this will be like SARS or bird flue or any of the other diseases that does sweet stuff all when compared to global population. ( which could still be argued )
Who has profited, in the long run all big business, the big will be bigger and the small will be gone, China for multiple reasons, drug companies, anyone in the pharmaceutical industry from protective gear, testing and treatment.

 

[dno67]

Had to go back a fair way to find where, when and what context I had asked those questions, 6 months ago when all the BS had just begun.
Well 6 months later, media will always post the news most likely to get viewers, yep hype because it is what it is, at the time I probably thought this will be like SARS or bird flue or any of the other diseases that does sweet stuff all when compared to global population. ( which could still be argued )
Who has profited, in the long run all big business, the big will be bigger and the small will be gone, China for multiple reasons, drug companies, anyone in the pharmaceutical industry from protective gear, testing and treatment.

I know my specialist phone consultations are $30.00 dearer than face to face. Got me stuffed why ?
My guess is thats probably what they estimate is missing from the economy by not physically driving there. Can't say l'm happy about ether.