Charging electric vehicles

Kippie

Well-Known Member
Electric vehicles, on the other hand, have a well proven and viable alternative - liquid fuelled vehicles.
The ICE alternative is going to disappear in the next couple of decades. A number of countries have already banned the sale of ICE in the near future. Also, several automobile manufacturers have announced that they plan to cease the production of ICEs in the near future. The transition is already happening worldwide. In the next couple of years we will see an increase of EVs entering the market whilst the number of ICEs will decline.

However, Australia is lagging behind this trend and already we are not offered the number of EV options that are available overseas simply because we don't buy enough of them. Moreover as the remaining market for ICEs will be getting smaller it will be even harder to get right hand driven ICE models. So we risk ending up with less choice and old clunkers.

And what about the availability of fuel? If the market of ICEs is getting smaller we can expect that there will be less demand, therefore reduced availability because todays refineries are already operating on a knife edge. Fuel prices will increase, whilst the cost of electricity continues to drop.

Not a good outlook in my opinion.
 

Albynsw

Well-Known Member
The ICE alternative is going to disappear in the next couple of decades. A number of countries have already banned the sale of ICE in the near future. Also, several automobile manufacturers have announced that they plan to cease the production of ICEs in the near future. The transition is already happening worldwide. In the next couple of years we will see an increase of EVs entering the market whilst the number of ICEs will decline.

However, Australia is lagging behind this trend and already we are not offered the number of EV options that are available overseas simply because we don't buy enough of them. Moreover as the remaining market for ICEs will be getting smaller it will be even harder to get right hand driven ICE models. So we risk ending up with less choice and old clunkers.

And what about the availability of fuel? If the market of ICEs is getting smaller we can expect that there will be less demand, therefore reduced availability because todays refineries are already operating on a knife edge. Fuel prices will increase, whilst the cost of electricity continues to drop.

Not a good outlook in my opinion.

Market forces will sort that I think over time. We lagg behind for good reason that EV vehicles are not so suitable for a vast sparsely populated country but that that will change over time.
It has too as ultimately we get what is made as are too small a market to dictate anything
 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
Market forces will sort that I think over time. We lagg behind for good reason that EV vehicles are not so suitable for a vast sparsely populated country but that that will change over time.
It has too as ultimately we get what is made as are too small a market to dictate anything
80% or so of the Australian population live within our metropolitan areas. The average passenger vehicle drives about 12000 km each year or 230 km each week. That is well within the range of current EVs. So I tend to believe we are a highly urbanised population who think we drive long distances but we don't.

 

Chatty

Well-Known Member
80% or so of the Australian population live within our metropolitan areas. The average passenger vehicle drives about 12000 km each year or 230 km each week. That is well within the range of current EVs. So I tend to believe we are a highly urbanised population who think we drive long distances but we don't.

Well, I'll call you out on that.
We've just done 6,000km over three weeks, with about the same again in about two to three months. Then about the same again about three months after that. Overall, about 30,000+ km per year.
And I could easily name a dozen friends who travel at least the same.

Yes, large parts of our population are urbanised. But you just can't write off the significant number of people who live and work in the rural and remote areas, for whom 1,000km a week is not unusual.
And, despite what you might dream about, the charging of large numbers of EVs in rural and remote Australia isn't going to happen in the next 20 years - the power supply problems alone are mind boggling.
The ICE alternative is going to disappear in the next couple of decades. A number of countries have already banned the sale of ICE in the near future. Also, several automobile manufacturers have announced that they plan to cease the production of ICEs in the near future. The transition is already happening worldwide. In the next couple of years we will see an increase of EVs entering the market whilst the number of ICEs will decline.
Yes, the countries that are banning them are European, with their population not reliant on cars to travel significant distances. Public transport and bicycle use is practical and widespread in Europe.
The European continent is significantly smaller than continental Australia, Europe comprises 44 countries with a population of 750 million people - that's an average population density about 60 times that of Australia.

Will we see EVs increase? Yes. Will ICEs still be available? Yes.
Personally I think that EVs are an evolutionary "dead end" that will be relegated by other fuels, especially hydrogen.
 

Chatty

Well-Known Member
Market forces will sort that I think over time. We lagg behind for good reason that EV vehicles are not so suitable for a vast sparsely populated country but that that will change over time.
It has too as ultimately we get what is made as are too small a market to dictate anything
keeping in mind that there will continue to be large populations that will demand ICEs - especially in North America, South America and Africa. I can't see the USofA giving up their love affair with ICEs any time soon either and Canada has similar distance / population issues to Australia.
 

G_ute

Well-Known Member
Personally I think that EVs are an evolutionary "dead end" that will be relegated by other fuels, especially hydrogen.

The majority of the few hydrogen cars are still EV's...

Hydrogen may be a useful to heavy industry and shipping (perhaps stored as ammonia) but its a long way from being practical for cars. If ever.

 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
Well, I'll call you out on that.
We've just done 6,000km over three weeks, with about the same again in about two to three months. Then about the same again about three months after that. Overall, about 30,000+ km per year.
And I could easily name a dozen friends who travel at least the same.

Yes, large parts of our population are urbanised. But you just can't write off the significant number of people who live and work in the rural and remote areas, for whom 1,000km a week is not unusual.
And, despite what you might dream about, the charging of large numbers of EVs in rural and remote Australia isn't going to happen in the next 20 years - the power supply problems alone are mind boggling.

Yes, the countries that are banning them are European, with their population not reliant on cars to travel significant distances. Public transport and bicycle use is practical and widespread in Europe.
The European continent is significantly smaller than continental Australia, Europe comprises 44 countries with a population of 750 million people - that's an average population density about 60 times that of Australia.

Will we see EVs increase? Yes. Will ICEs still be available? Yes.
Personally I think that EVs are an evolutionary "dead end" that will be relegated by other fuels, especially hydrogen.
There will always be a relatively small number of drivers who have special needs. They will not make up the bulk of the market and they will pay a special price for their needs, for example hydrogen or fuel cells in trucks. For passenger vehicles it's not going to be cheap, especially if it involves a relatively small number of cars like the Australian market. Assuming there's an importer who is willing to invest in that market.

In terms of the US, Ford is already gearing up to make 40% of its sales EVs by 2030. So the Americans are way in front of Australia.
 

Albynsw

Well-Known Member
80% or so of the Australian population live within our metropolitan areas. The average passenger vehicle drives about 12000 km each year or 230 km each week. That is well within the range of current EVs. So I tend to believe we are a highly urbanised population who think we drive long distances but we don't.


No doubt there are those that fit the EV criteria but plenty that don’t . Between my wife and I we are doing 50 to 60 k a year. Another aspect is vehicle size and versatility to be able to tow boat, caravan etc and that annual trip to the snow or whatever.
Our lifestyle and needs are very different to the European countries but no doubt we will evolve as the technology and availability improves
 

discomatt

Well-Known Member
There will always be a relatively small number of drivers who have special needs. They will not make up the bulk of the market and they will pay a special price for their needs, for example hydrogen or fuel cells in trucks. For passenger vehicles it's not going to be cheap, especially if it involves a relatively small number of cars like the Australian market. Assuming there's an importer who is willing to invest in that market.
You obviously haven't seen what chatty and Trish ( his better half ) travel the big brown land in, I don't think he or people that travel like him look for cheap :)
 

Chatty

Well-Known Member
In terms of the US, Ford is already gearing up to make 40% of its sales EVs by 2030. So the Americans are way in front of Australia.
And do you know who that 40% will be? Government fleets for relatively local trips. Police fleets, again local. Company fleets for local use.

The great unwashed American public will continue to largely buy ICEs.
And that public will continue to run older engines for a long time because of price.

Don't get me wrong - the death notice for new vehicles powered by petrol and diesel engines has been written, but is not yet dated.
But I can't see electric vehicles replacing ICEs and fuel cells.
 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
No doubt there are those that fit the EV criteria but plenty that don’t . Between my wife and I we are doing 50 to 60 k a year. Another aspect is vehicle size and versatility to be able to tow boat, caravan etc and that annual trip to the snow or whatever.
Our lifestyle and needs are very different to the European countries but no doubt we will evolve as the technology and availability improves
That's true, but in terms of market proportion Australia is very small. Moreover, we need right hand driven vehicles, that's a niche market. Especially since the UK is banning ICE sales in 2030. We will be at the whim of overseas manufacturers who are looking at what the majority wants. And that's not us. On top of that, we, as a nation are investing bugger all in EVs. So why would an overseas manufacturer be interested in entering this market. There's easier money made elsewhere with less risk.

We ceased vehicle manufacturing in Australia several years ago and missed the opportunity to pivot into domestic EV production.

Please note that for every person on this forum who drives more than 12k km a year means there's another person or persons who has/have driven less. That's the way averages work.
 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
And do you know who that 40% will be? Government fleets for relatively local trips. Police fleets, again local. Company fleets for local use.
Do you have a reference for this?
The great unwashed American public will continue to largely buy ICEs.
And that public will continue to run older engines for a long time because of price.
Not true

Don't get me wrong - the death notice for new vehicles powered by petrol and diesel engines has been written, but is not yet dated.
But I can't see electric vehicles replacing ICEs and fuel cells.
The death notices for ICEs have been issued and dated.

 

Albynsw

Well-Known Member
Talking with a mate today who is considering buying a new Volvo ( poor Bastard) and all their new stock is hybrid, they have stopped making straight ICE vehicles
 

Chatty

Well-Known Member
You obviously haven't seen what chatty and Trish ( his better half ) travel the big brown land in, I don't think he or people that travel like him look for cheap :)
The majority of nomads are looking for comfort, not price. But there is a segment which is price driven.

But the same factors apply to both - the ability to travel long distances towing 3+ tonnes of caravan and flexibility in accommodation options - including free camping, which won't have EV charging options.

The nomad market won't accept vehicles that require hours of charging every few hundred kilometres.

I think the breakthrough will come with alternative fuels - especially hydrogen - and possibly solar cells with 99% efficiency.
 

Albynsw

Well-Known Member
Please note that for every person on this forum who drives more than 12k km a year means there's another person or persons who has/have driven less. That's the way averages work.

Yes true but even the low K owners are looking for a vehicle that suits their needs which might include the annual vacation towing a boat or whatever
The pricepoint for a family EV is in the luxury category and still a limited use vehicle at that.

For the vast majority they are not a realistic option at this stage
 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
The majority of nomads are looking for comfort, not price. But there is a segment which is price driven.

But the same factors apply to both - the ability to travel long distances towing 3+ tonnes of caravan and flexibility in accommodation options - including free camping, which won't have EV charging options.

The nomad market won't accept vehicles that require hours of charging every few hundred kilometres.

I think the breakthrough will come with alternative fuels - especially hydrogen - and possibly solar cells with 99% efficiency.
I agree, but it will not be cheap, unless we start investing in EV infrastructure now. In several countries the sale of ICEs will be banned and we already know that car manufacturers are already gearing up to produce predominantly EVs. Will that give us enough time to develop hydrogen or fuel cell passenger vehicles? Are any of the passenger vehicle manufacturers investing in that technology? Is there a demand for that in the bigger overseas markets if EV uptake is already happening there?
 

Chatty

Well-Known Member
@Kippie - You need to talk to people. A lot of Americans can't afford a $10k now - they have no chance of buying a $50k EV.

If you want references - do some digging and look at Ford and GM marketing strategies for EVs.

Of course Wikipedia is always correct, isn't it? But accepting it at face value - 14 countries and 20 cities are looking at fossil fuel bans. That only leaves 181 countries and 9,980 cities that haven't banned them...
 

Kippie

Well-Known Member
@Kippie - You need to talk to people. A lot of Americans can't afford a $10k now - they have no chance of buying a $50k EV.
A lot of Australians can't afford it either. But it doesn't refute the trend.
If you want references - do some digging and look at Ford and GM marketing strategies for EVs.
Why don't you?
Of course Wikipedia is always correct, isn't it? But accepting it at face value - 14 countries and 20 cities are looking at fossil fuel bans. That only leaves 181 countries and 9,980 cities that haven't banned them...
Yes, but which are the ones that own vehicle manufacturing operations and which ones are the ones with the money to spend on R&D?
 

Albynsw

Well-Known Member
@Kippie , the other aspect for those who do live in the CBD and do low k’s is the affordability/ value for money they get from investing in a new EV would be a stumbling block for many.

The other big driver for the high density European cities is air pollution which isn’t really an issue here

I am not against EV in any way just don’t think it is a biggy in the scheme of things and there are other areas we should focus that will give a better outcome in the shorter term
 

discomatt

Well-Known Member
some very good and valid points being made.
A few things come to my mind,
1, tech moves so fast these days who the hell knows where we will be in 20 or even 10 years
2 the world is changing so fast with so many issues who the hell knows where society will be in 20 or even 10 years
3 Australia is an glaring admission when researching future transport plans set out by governments
4 as things progress living costs and tax will increase massively , driverless cars will become a normal so to save on travel expenses many or most will not even own a vehicle, if you want to go anywhere a driverless car will pull up, pick you up and drop you off at your destination then it will go and pick up its next passenger. Ownership and uninhibited travel will be a thing of the past and for the elite only
 
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